2017 October Newsletter

One of our favorite Warren Buffet quotes is that “investing is simple, but not easy”. What does this mean?  Read this quarter’s newsletter to find out. 

Topics of interested include:   

  • 3Q market activity update
  • Weathering the storm:  reinsurance investments
  •  Sterneck Capital Management’s recent community stewardship
  • Planning for the unexpected

Click here for Oct. 2017 Newsletter

Credit Report Self-Monitoring

Recent data breach activity has prompted  attention to cyber security and identity protection options. Purchasing identify theft protection, freezing one’s credit and/or taking advantage of Equifax’s offer for free one-year Identity Theft Protection and Credit File Monitoring are personal choices.

At a minimum, Sterneck Capital Management encourages clients to remain educated on potential identity fraud issues and options at hand.  We also encourage clients to take prudent steps to self-monitor their credit report activity by taking advantage of the free credit reports available annually from each of the credit reporting companies (Equifax, TransUnion and Experian).   

The Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA) requires each of these nationwide credit reporting companies to provide you with a free copy of your credit report, at your request, once every 12 months. Consider requesting a free report on a rotating and regular basis every four months (example:  Equifax in September, Experian in January, TransUnion in May).

There can be a lot of misinformation found on social media and talk shows. Take steps to ensure the sources of your information are reputable and accurate.  The following links provide specific updates on the recent breech directly from Equifax, as well as report-monitoring options and guidance from government sites

Click here for Credit Reporting Companies Info

Sterneck Capital’s Market Reaction? Patience

A note from Sterneck Capital Management’s Investment Committee:

First, we feel it is important to frame the recent pullback by placing it in the context of the total market move during this current six-year bull run. From the 2009 low to recent highs, the broad market has moved up 217%. The recent pullback was 15%.

Under the surface, a large number of stocks have been in steep declines for the last few months. The indexes have been held up by a small number of large cap stocks that have a disproportionate impact on the indexes’ price. With these large cap names now ceding ground, it is placing further pressure on the broad sector of already weak names, it is in these stocks  where the potential opportunity lies. These are names that are now down 30/40/or 50% or more from their 52 week highs. However, there is no reason to be a hero in these stocks and catch every last penny of an up move. This is a message we have been communicating in recent presentations: knife catching is for circus performers, not investors. Even at current prices, few stocks are extremely cheap. Despite the pull-back, most are up considerably over a 3 and 5yr period. However, if and when markets stabilize and earnings visibility or sentiment improve, then we can initiate and accumulate new positions. We are less concerned about missing the first 5 or 10% of an individual stock move, if it is set to appreciate 30 or 40%. Conversely, we care deeply about avoiding 20 or 30% draw-downs, since we know that it takes a 40% upside return to make up for a 30% downside move.

The current price action in oil is an excellent example of why one should not simply buy something because it is down a perceived large percentage from its highs. In July of last year oil was at $107. Should it have been bought when it fell 20% to $80, particularly since it is known the demand for oil is high, and resources finite? A 20% drop must be a buying opportunity, yes? Or perhaps one should have bought it at $50, down over 50% –what an opportunity! Well, the good news is if we didn’t buy it at either of those spots, we can buy it today for $38 p/barrel, down 66% from its highs!  Even the lucky few who bought their oil on the March low of $42 (who were likely bragging about their 50% returns when oil was at $60 in July) are now underwater!

Using a previous price as a reference point for where to buy something is a perfect example of the common psychological fault of “anchoring” that we often discuss.

So what is the message? The message is patience. Returns are not made in a day; but significant losses can impact portfolios for a long period of time. Oil would have to double from here to get investors back to even on the oil they bought down 25% from its high. The old adage of “be very aware of the downside, and the upside will take care of itself” is very relevant in the current environment. This said, the wider market move has potentially set up some excellent opportunities, but we prefer to be patient stalkers of those opportunities rather than foolhardy knife catchers.

 

Financial Planning Checklist

Achieve your financial goals and prepare for the unknown.  Use the Sterneck Capital Management Planning Checklist to create a robust financial plan and investment strategy.  Review it regularly to ensure your documents are current and loved ones have the information needed to fulfill your wishes in your absence.

Contact us at 816.531.2254  with questions regarding the checklist or your personal financial plan.

Sterneck Capital Planning Checklist

2014 3Q Client Newsletter

Check out the 3rd Quarter Client Newsletter.

Content includes:

  • 2014 3Q Review – Divergence
  • Evaluation of Pension or Lump Sum Options
  • Risk Analytics – What is your risk tolerance?
  • Firm Update From Frank – Enhancing Your Client Experience

2014 3Q Newsletter

2014 2Q Client Newsletter

View this quarter’s newsletter to learn more about the following:

  • What Happened in 2nd Quarter’s Market?
  • Mutual Fund Movement
  • Social Security Considerations
  • Firm Update from Frank – Evolution

2014. 2Q Newsletter

2014 1Q Client Newsletter

With great excitement we introduce to you this new communication vehicle to keep clients informed and educated.  Check out your first Quarterly Client Newsletter and let us know what you think!

Topics in this edition:

  • 2014 1Q Market Commentary
  • 2014 Taxes – A Bigger Bite impacting the affluent
  • Sources of Risk – Managing It All For You
  • Charitable Donation Options – Living to Give
  • Update from Frank – Growth & Firm Enhancements

2014 1Q Newsletter